MACROECONOMICS CONFERENCE

Previously Published Papers on "Macroeconomics Conference"

• Influence Analysis of Macroeconomic Parameters on Real Estate Price Variation in Taipei, Taiwan

  Authors: Li Li, Kai-Hsuan Chu, Keywords: Real estate price, least-square, grey correlation, macroeconomics. DOI:10.5281/zenodo.2022047 Abstract: It is well known that the real estate price depends on a lot of factors. Each house current value is dependent on the location, room number, transportation, living convenience, year and surrounding environments. Although, there are different experienced models for housing agent to estimate the price, it is a case by case study without overall dynamic variation investigation. However, many economic parameters may more or less influence the real estate price variation. Here, the influences of most macroeconomic parameters on real estate price are investigated individually based on least-square scheme and grey correlation strategy. Then those parameters are classified into leading indices, simultaneous indices and laggard indices. In addition, the leading time period is evaluated based on least square method. The important leading and simultaneous indices can be used to establish an artificial intelligent neural network model for real estate price variation prediction. The real estate price variation of Taipei, Taiwan during 2005 ~ 2017 are chosen for this research data analysis and validation. The results show that the proposed method has reasonable prediction function for real estate business reference.

• The Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impacts of Reforming Energy Subsidy Policy in Malaysia

  Authors: Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff, Hussain Ali Bekhet, Keywords: CGE, deficit, energy, reform, subsidy. DOI:10.5281/zenodo.1130361 Abstract: The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has significantly improved the real GDP and reduced the government fiscal deficit. On the other hand, the removal of the fuel subsidy has increased most of the local commodity prices, especially energy commodities. The findings of the study could provide some imperative inputs for policy makers, especially to identify the right policy mechanism. This is especially ensures the subsidy savings from subsidy removal could be transferred back into the domestic economy in the form of infrastructure development, compensation and increases in others sector output contributions towards a sustainable economic growth.

• Factors Influencing the Housing Price: Developers’ Perspective

  Authors: Ernawati Mustafa Kamal, Hasnanywati Hassan, Atasya Osmadi, Keywords: Factors influencing house price, housing affordability, housing developers, Malaysia. DOI:10.5281/zenodo.1124527 Abstract: The housing industry is crucial for sustainable development of every country. Housing is a basic need that can enhance the quality of life. Owning a house is therefore the main aim of individuals. However, affordability has become a critical issue towards homeownership. In recent years, housing price in the main cities has increased tremendously to unaffordable level. This paper investigates factors influencing the housing price from developer’s perspective and provides recommendation on strategies to tackle this issue. Online and face-to-face survey was conducted on housing developers operating in Penang, Malaysia. The results indicate that (1) location; (2) macroeconomics factor; (3) demographic factors; (4) land/zoning and; (5) industry factors are the main factors influencing the housing price. This paper contributes towards better understanding on developers’ view on how the housing price is determined and form a basis for government to help tackle the housing affordability issue.

• The Impact of the European Single Market on the Austrian Economy under Alternative Assumptions about Global and National Policy Reactions

  Authors: Reinhard Neck, Guido Schäfer, Keywords: Macroeconomics, European Union, simulation, sensitivity analysis. DOI:10.5281/zenodo.1107798 Abstract: In this paper, we explore the macroeconomic effects of the European Single Market on Austria by simulating the McKibbin-Sachs Global Model. Global interdependences and the impact of long-run effects on short-run adjustments are taken into account. We study the sensitivity of the results with respect to different assumptions concerning monetary and fiscal policies for the countries and regions of the world economy. The consequences of different assumptions about budgetary policies in Austria are also investigated. The simulation results are contrasted with ex-post evaluations of the actual impact of Austria’s membership in the Single Market. As a result, it can be concluded that the Austrian participation in the European Single Market entails considerable long-run gains for the Austrian economy with nearly no adverse sideeffects on any macroeconomic target variable.

• Application of Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System in Macroeconomic Variables Forecasting

  Authors: Ε. Giovanis, Keywords: Linear models, Macroeconomics, Neuro-Fuzzy,Non-Linear models DOI:10.5281/zenodo.1080724 Abstract: In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate. We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic forecasting used in academic research and in research and application by the governmental and other institutions

• Financial Regulations in the Process of Global Financial Crisis and Macroeconomics Impact of Basel III

  Authors: M. Okan Tasar, Keywords: Banking Systems, Basel III, Financial regulation, Global Financial Crisis. DOI:10.5281/zenodo.1331467 Abstract: Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures. Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential, regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations, system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks. Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30 to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises. Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed. The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.

• Changing of Macroeconomics under Influence by Internal and External Powers

  Authors: E. Pyle, Keywords: Different kinds of deformation of macroeconomics'shells, shells of a big or a medium and a small business. DOI:10.5281/zenodo.1058905 Abstract: This paper shows that the economy of any country can be presented as three different shells such as: economic shell of a big, a medium and a small business. The new concepts were introduced such as: volume of an economic shell, coefficient of shell-s expansion (compression) etc. These shells can expansion or compress under action by internal or external powers and when shell expansions - it means the rising of a business activity and compression shows us that economy goes on recession. This process of an expansion or a compression can develop in the various ways like linear, logarithm or any other mathematical laws.

• Analyzing the Fiscal Health of Local Governments in Taiwan: Evidence from Quantile Analysis

  Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang, Yuan-Hong Ho, Keywords: Fiscal health, political budget cycles, legislative checks and balances, quantile regression. DOI:10.5281/zenodo.1087269 Abstract: This paper develops the fiscal health index of 21 local governments in Taiwan over the 1984 to 2010 period. A quantile regression analysis was used to explore the extent that economic variables, political budget cycles, and legislative checks and balances, impact different quantiles of fiscal health index for a country over a sample period of time. Our findings suggest that local governments at the lower quantile are significantly benefited from political budget cycles and the increase in central government revenues, while legislative effective checks and balances and the increase in central government expenditures have a significantly negative effect on local fiscal health. When local governments are in the upper tail of the distribution, legislative checks and balances and growth in macroeconomics have significant and adverse effects on the fiscal health of local governments. However, increases in central government revenues have significant and positive effects on the health status of local government in Taiwan.

• Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes: Case of Ex-Yugoslavia Countries

  Authors: Ivan Lovrinović, Gordana Kordić, Martina Nakić, Keywords: European Union, exchange rate regime, ex- Yugoslavia countries DOI:10.5281/zenodo.1055335 Abstract: There are little subjects in macroeconomics that are so widely discussed, but at the same time controversial and without a clear solution such as the choice of exchange rate regime. National authorities need to take into consideration numerous fundamentals, trying to fulfil goals of economic growth, low and stable inflation and international stability. This paper focuses on the countries of ex- Yugoslavia and their exchange rate history as independent states. We follow the development of the regimes in 6 countries during the transition through the financial crisis of the second part of the 2000s to the prospects of their final goal: full membership in the European Union. Main question is to what extent has the exchange regime contributed to their economic success, considering other objective factors.