HETEROGENOUS EFFECT OF LABOUR INCOME SHOCKS ON CONFLICT: EVIDENCE FROM THE FULANI CONFLICT IN NIGERIA

Back to Page Authors: Iloanugo Uzoma

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Keywords: conflict, rainfall, income, opportunity cost

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Abstract: In the conflict literature, shocks to agricultural commodity are expected to have an inverse relationship with conflict incidence. This research shows this is not always the case. The opportunity cost effect of income shocks on conflict depends on if the agricultural output is contestable. Studying the Fulani-Farmer pastoral conflict in North-Central Nigeria, I find a differential effect of drought shocks on the conflict in herding areas. With drought shocks of 1 std-dev, increasing cattle density by 20% reduces the probability of Fulani-farmer conflict incidence by 24.9%. The probability of other non-pastoral conflict incidence increases by 10.6% with a similar productivity shock in North-central Nigeria. The result suggests farm labour mobility between non-agricultural and agricultural conflict; farmers are less likely to protect farmlands from appropriation by Fulani Herders when agricultural productivity is low, farmers earn income engaging in other conflict activities.

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